The World Bank has projected that Nigeria’s economy will record its fastest growth in more than 10 years, revising its forecast upward to 4.4 per cent for both 2026 and 2027.
The projection was contained in the World Bank’s latest Global Economic Prospects report released yesterday. The new estimate represents an upward revision of 0.7 and 0.6 percentage points from the earlier projections of 3.7 per cent and 3.8 per cent issued in June.
According to the report, Nigeria’s economic growth improved to 4.2 per cent in 2025, driven largely by expansion in the services sector, particularly finance and information and communication technology, alongside a modest recovery in agriculture and the country’s emergence as a net exporter of refined petroleum products.
The World Bank said growth is expected to strengthen further in the medium term, marking the fastest pace of expansion for Nigeria in over a decade.
“Growth in Nigeria is forecast to strengthen to 4.4 percent in both 2026 and 2027,” the report stated. “This further firming of growth is anticipated to be underpinned by a continued expansion in services and a rebound in agricultural output, with a modest acceleration in non-oil industry.”
The report noted that ongoing economic reforms, including changes to the tax system, as well as sustained prudent monetary policy, are expected to support economic activity, improve investor confidence and further ease inflationary pressures.
It added that increased oil production is projected to offset lower global oil prices, helping to boost government revenues and strengthen Nigeria’s external position.
However, the World Bank warned that sustaining the projected growth would depend on addressing long-standing structural weaknesses. Although Nigeria introduced fiscal rules in 2007 to limit exposure to oil revenue volatility, weak institutional frameworks have historically undermined enforcement, resulting in inconsistent fiscal discipline.
The report noted that current reform efforts are aimed at tackling these structural challenges to ensure that economic growth is durable and inclusive.
On the global outlook, the World Bank said the world economy has shown greater resilience than previously expected despite ongoing trade tensions and policy uncertainties. Global growth is projected to ease slightly to 2.6 per cent in 2026 before rising to 2.7 per cent in 2027, representing an upward revision from earlier forecasts.
