The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that food insecurity could escalate across Nigeria and other African nations as global economic disruptions linked to ongoing conflict threaten recent recovery gains in the region.
In its latest assessment, the IMF said Sub-Saharan Africa entered 2026 on relatively stable footing, following a strong 4.5 percent economic growth in 2025—the fastest in a decade. Growth was driven by improved investment flows, easing macroeconomic pressures, and a favorable global environment, with countries such as Benin, Côte d’Ivoire, Ethiopia, and Rwanda recording expansions above six percent.
However, IMF’s African Department Director, Abebe Aemro Selassie, cautioned that this progress is now under threat due to escalating global tensions, rising commodity prices, and tightening financial conditions. He warned that a prolonged conflict could reduce regional output, accelerate inflation, and force governments into difficult fiscal adjustments.
According to the IMF, a sharp rise in global food prices could push more than 20 million additional people into food insecurity, while millions of children risk acute malnutrition. The situation is further compounded by rising fertiliser and shipping costs, alongside climate-related shocks such as recent floods in Mozambique and Madagascar.
The warning aligns with findings from the 2026 edition of the Global Report on Food Crises, which indicates that global hunger remains at critical levels. The report revealed that 266 million people across 47 countries faced acute food insecurity in 2025, with famine declared in parts of Gaza and Sudan for the first time in its history.
The report, supported by multiple humanitarian agencies including the International Fund for Agricultural Development, noted that hunger has doubled over the past decade, driven by persistent conflict, economic instability, and climate extremes.
Experts warn that the ongoing conflict involving the United States and Israel against Iran could further disrupt energy and fertiliser markets, worsening food price pressures globally.
Africa’s most vulnerable regions, particularly West Africa and the Sahel, are expected to remain under severe strain. Countries such as Nigeria, Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso face mounting challenges from insecurity, inflation, and declining humanitarian support. Nigeria alone is projected to see an additional 4.1 million people fall into acute hunger in 2026.
In East Africa, prolonged drought conditions are expected to worsen food shortages in Somalia and Kenya, where reduced rainfall, high food prices, and shrinking aid continue to drive humanitarian concerns.
The IMF also highlighted declining foreign aid as a critical concern, noting that funding cuts in 2025 have disproportionately affected fragile economies, limiting access to essential services such as healthcare and food assistance.
With debt vulnerabilities rising across the region, the Fund stressed the urgency of structural reforms, including improving governance, strengthening business environments, and deepening regional trade through initiatives like the African Continental Free Trade Area.
Analysts say without swift intervention, the combined pressures of conflict, climate shocks, and reduced financial support could reverse years of economic progress and deepen humanitarian crises across the continent.
